ICES Quota Advices 2026 - a preliminary view

ICES Quota Advices 2026 - a preliminary view

Publisert den 01.10.2025 av Per Arne Fagervoll Meek

The 2026 ICES recommendations for pelagic species signal a dramatic mackerel cut alongside a stronger outlook for NVG herring. Below we summarise the advice, the rationale, early industry responses, and the Norwegian quota mechanics under the trilateral agreement.

Headline recommendations & year-on-year comparison

ICES 2026 advice comparison overview

Implications: A sharp one-year reduction for mackerel will constrain raw material availability and likely keep purchase prices elevated in key markets. NVG herring's increase provides partial relief, while North Sea herring and the small trim on horse mackerel underline mixed dynamics across pelagic species.

Why ICES advises this

Mackerel: Spawning stock biomass now below Blim, with fishing mortality above reference points. MSY advice targets a <= 50% chance of SSB recovering above Blim by 2027.
NVG Herring: Improved stock indicators support a higher catch recommendation.
North Sea Herring: Pressure on SSB necessitates a lower advice to secure recruitment.
Horse Mackerel: Stock above precautionary thresholds and F below FMSY; advice broadly stable. Separate zero-catch advice for the North Sea horse mackerel to support recovery.

Initial industry responses

  • NAPA (North Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group): "shocking but not surprising"; calls on coastal states to align with ICES.
  • Norwegian fleet organisations: emphasise severity and question methods ("science in the dark").
  • Japanese buyers: warn of supply risk and record prices if the cut is implemented.

Norway's framework under the trilateral agreement

Shares: Norway 31.00%, UK 27.83%, Faroe 13.35%. Norway transfers 3.2% of total TAC to the UK. Norway's coastal fleet has a 25,000 t floor. Norwegian vessels can fish up to 60% of Norway's quota in UK waters (subject to annual licensing and area rules).

Norwegian estimated mackerel calculation (2026)

PartTonnage (t)
Total TAC (ICES advice)174,357
Norway - gross (31.00%)54,051
Transfer NO - UK (3.2% of TAC)5,579
Norway - net48,472
UK - gross (27.83%)48,524
UK - net (incl. transfer)54,103
Faroe Islands (13.35%)23,277
Sum trilateral (net)125,852
Other coastal states (remainder)48,505
Norwegian coastal fleet floor25,000
Norway - balance (SUK / trawl / purse seine)23,472
NO - max in UK zone (60% of NO net)29,083
NO - other zones (40% of NO net)19,389