Mackerel 2026: New Coastal State Agreement
Publisert den 17.12.2025 av Per Arne Fagervoll Meek
Key numbers for 2026
The Parties agreed a Total Allowable Catch (TAC) of 299,010 tonnes for Northeast Atlantic mackerel in 2026. Norway has announced a national quota of 78,939 tonnes under the agreed framework.
Important clarification: separate from North Sea stocks agreements
This agreement concerns Northeast Atlantic mackerel only and should not be confused with the Norway-EU-UK agreement on North Sea stocks.
- The Norway-EU-UK agreement covers shared North Sea stocks, including North Sea herring, cod, haddock, plaice, saithe and whiting. Mackerel is not included in that North Sea stocks agreement.
The mackerel framework is managed through a separate coastal state process. The 2026 agreement builds on the 2024 framework (Norway-UK-Faroe Islands) by extending cooperation to include Iceland and by updating quotas, transfers and access arrangements for 2026.
Quota shares: headline vs net shares after transfers
The European Union and Greenland are not parties to the agreement, meaning total shares do not sum to 100%.
Why are net shares different from headline shares?
The Parties implement the 2026 framework through a set of bilateral quota transfers and reciprocal access arrangements. This is why the effective "net quota" differs from the headline percentage shares.
How the bilateral arrangements work (practical overview)
Alongside the main agreement, the Parties have outlined bilateral arrangements that determine how quotas and access are implemented in practice. Key points include:
- Norway-UK: UK grants Norway access to fish up to 60% of Norway's net share in UK waters (47,363 tonnes).
- Norway-Iceland: Iceland may fish in Norway's zone corresponding to 60% of its net share (18,838 tonnes).
- Faroe Islands-Norway: Faroe Islands may fish in Norway's zone corresponding to 40% of its net share (stated as 14,352 tonnes).
- Faroe Islands-UK: UK grants the Faroe Islands access corresponding to 35% of the Faroe Islands' net share in UK waters.
- Faroe Islands-Iceland: Iceland may fish 9,419 tonnes in Faroese waters.
These access provisions matter operationally because they influence where fishing activity can take place and how landings and logistics may develop during the season.
What ICES advised for 2026
ICES published its scientific advice for Northeast Atlantic mackerel for 2026 under the MSY approach. ICES advised that:
Catches in 2026 should not exceed 174,357 tonnes.
Compared with the 2025 advice level of 576,958 tonnes, this signalled a reduction of around 70%.
ICES position (simplified):
The advice is designed to reduce fishing pressure and improve the probability of stock recovery above critical reference points within the coming years.
Standard ICES advice vs agreed 2026 outcome
Call-out: Why does the agreed TAC differ from ICES advice?
The ICES advice has not been withdrawn. The agreed 2026 TAC reflects a policy decision by coastal states within a cooperative management framework, balancing biological risk against socio-economic and market considerations.
This is also part of the wider context Global Fish has communicated previously: revised assessment inputs and benchmark work have changed parts of the calculation basis, but ICES still signals caution and a need for rebuilding.
Stabilisation mechanism
Unlike North Sea herring, the mackerel agreement does not rely on an ICES-approved long-term harvest control rule with formal year-to-year TAC constraints.
However, the Parties state a clear intention to avoid extreme annual fluctuations and to revisit management arrangements as new scientific information becomes available.
In this context, the Parties have decided to submit a request to ICES to evaluate a draft long-term management strategy, which they welcome ahead of the consultations for the 2027 TAC.
Proposed future framework (under ICES evaluation)
The draft strategy is proposed to include a stabilisation mechanism similar to that used for North Sea herring:
- Maximum annual increase of +25%
- Maximum annual reduction of -20%
- Applies only if spawning stock biomass (SSB) is above trigger level
If SSB is at or below trigger level, larger reductions than 20% would apply.
Based on this proposed structure, the TAC for 2027 could theoretically increase to a maximum of 373,762 tonnes, even if stock biomass were to support a sharper increase.
A sustainable agreement?
The Parties describe the agreement as sustainable within a broader management context.
From a scientific perspective, ICES maintains that catches above advice increase the risk of delayed stock recovery.
How sustainability is framed
Sustainability in this agreement is therefore framed primarily as a policy and management choice, rather than a strict application of annual biological advice. It relies on continued monitoring, future ICES evaluations and the possibility of tighter measures if stock indicators deteriorate.
How this fits the broader scientific debate
Throughout 2025, the mackerel discussion has been shaped by two parallel tracks:
- Revised scientific calculations and assessment updates (benchmark work and methodology changes)
- Management negotiations between coastal states on how to translate science into a practical TAC and allocation
Global Fish has previously covered the assessment context and the ICES advice signal in earlier updates. This article focuses on what the new agreement changes and how to interpret it for 2026 planning.
Related reading (for context):
https://globalfish.no/revised-scientific-assessments-for-mackerel-and-herring/b/12899/
https://globalfish.no/ices-quota-advice-2026-strong-contrast-between-macker/b/13114/
https://globalfish.no/outlook-2026/b/13127/
Market implications and Global Fish view
The agreement reduces uncertainty and improves predictability versus a scenario of unilateral quota setting. At the same time, the gap between ICES advice and agreed catch level remains significant and will continue to be closely watched.
For buyers and planning into 2026, the key signals are:
- More supply than implied by ICES MSY advice alone
- Clearer quota shares and access rules between the Parties
- Ongoing sustainability debate likely to continue into future advice cycles
