Mackerel 2027: Higher Catch Advice, Recovery Fragile

Publisert den 30.09.2026 av Per Arne Fagervoll Meek

The increase follows the more encouraging survey results we covered in our August update. Those findings have now been included in the stock assessment. Stronger recruitment from the 2024 year class and higher average fish weights have improved the outlook, but the spawning stock remains close to its critical biological limit.

The figures behind the increase

The increase of 102.4% is measured against last year's scientific advice. Compared with the 398,186 tonnes ICES expects to be caught in 2026, the new recommendation represents a reduction of 11.4%.

This matters when considering supply for next year. The fishery did not operate at the low catch level advised for 2026. A large increase in advice therefore does not translate into a similar increase in fish available to the market.

Two years of sharp changes

The advice for 2025 was 576,958 tonnes, down 22% from the 2024 recommendation. Against the catch expected in 2024 at the time, it called for a reduction of around 40%. Actual catches subsequently fell much less: the latest ICES figures show 897,701 tonnes in 2024 and 809,175 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 9.9%. Norwegian landings fell more sharply, from 250,186 to 156,244 tonnes, or 37.5%.

For 2026, ICES recommended a further 70% cut in advice, to 174,357 tonnes. Norway, the UK, Iceland and the Faroe Islands instead based their agreement on a reference TAC of 299,010 tonnes. The four parties' published net shares cover 79.45% of that reference, approximately 237,563 tonnes. The full 299,010 tonnes is therefore not the sum of their four allocations.

Adding the EU's published base quotas of 66,362 tonnes, Greenland's 19,435 tonnes and Russia's declared 67,548 tonnes gives an indicative base total of approximately 390,908 tonnes. This calculation precedes carryovers and further adjustments. ICES lists 398,186 tonnes as the sum of declared quotas including interannual transfers and uses the same figure in its 2026 catch forecast. A full reconciliation requires the same adjustments and reporting date for every party.

More young fish, but recovery takes time

ICES estimates the spawning stock in 2026 at approximately 3.20 million tonnes. This puts it above the biological limit, known as Blim, but still below the higher level used to trigger reductions in fishing pressure.

The stronger estimate for the 2024 year class is an important part of the improvement. These fish were observed as two-year-olds in this summer's survey. ICES notes that the recruitment estimate currently rests on that survey index and still needs confirmation from catch data.

The stock's position relative to the biological thresholds also helps explain the size of the increase in advice. Moving above Blim allows a higher fishing mortality under the advice framework. The 102.4% increase in recommended catches should not be read as a comparable increase in the stock itself.

What would the existing shares mean for 2027?

The four-party arrangement is written to apply through 2028 unless the parties agree otherwise. If 352,938 tonnes were adopted as the reference TAC for 2027, applying the same published net shares would give the following starting point:

Illustrative calculation using the agreement's published percentages, rounded to whole tonnes. These are net shares after the transfers reflected in the agreement, before carryovers, deductions or further arrangements. They are not adopted national quotas.

This would be an increase of approximately 18% from the same calculation at the 2026 reference TAC. The four shares total 79.45%; the remaining 20.55% is not an agreed allocation to the EU, Greenland or Russia.

What this means for the coming season

For Global Fish and our customers, today's advice is welcome news after the sharp reduction recommended last year. It gives the industry a better basis for planning, while still pointing to catches below the level expected in 2026.

The next step is the management decision for 2027. National quotas, transfers and access arrangements will determine how the fishery can operate. The size distribution and timing of catches will then shape availability in the different commercial grades.

We will follow the negotiations and return to the implications for supply once the quota arrangements are clearer.

Sources: ICES advice for Northeast Atlantic mackerel, published 30 September 2026 (catch advice, forecast and stock assessment); four-party mackerel arrangement for 2026 (reference TAC and shares); HI's 2025 advice summary; EU Regulation 2026/786, Tables 103-105; Greenland's 2026 quota decision; European Commission on Russia's declared quota.