North Sea Herring: From Scientific Advice to Agreement
Publisert den 16.12.2025 av Per Arne Fagervoll Meek
Key numbers for 2026
Following the recently announced fisheries agreement between Norway, the European Union and the United Kingdom, the agreed total allowable catch (TAC) for North Sea herring in 2026 is 328,566 tonnes, corresponding to a 20% reduction from 2025.
Important clarification: this agreement does not cover mackerel
This agreement is entirely separate from the trilateral mackerel agreement and should not be confused with it.
- The Norway-EU-UK agreement covers shared North Sea stocks, including North Sea herring, cod, haddock, plaice, saithe and whiting.
- Mackerel is not included in this agreement.
Mackerel continues to be managed under a separate trilateral framework between Norway, the United Kingdom and the Faroe Islands (updated in 2024). That framework remains unchanged by the new North Sea agreement.
The scientific basis communicated earlier in 2025
The reduction of around 30% communicated earlier in the year was based on the standard ICES catch advice framework, applying the existing harvest control rule to the latest stock assessment for North Sea autumn-spawning herring.
2025 TAC: 410,707 tonnes
Standard ICES advice (2026): 287,772 tonnes
This reflected weaker recruitment and the need to reduce fishing pressure to protect spawning biomass. This advice remains scientifically valid and unchanged.
Standard ICES advice vs the new strategy
Call-out: Why does the final quota differ from earlier ICES advice?
Global Fish previously communicated an expected reduction of around 30% for North Sea herring in 2026. This was based on the standard ICES catch advice and has not been revised or withdrawn.
The final TAC agreed by Norway, the EU and the UK reflects a policy choice within an ICES-evaluated framework, and does not represent a change in the underlying biological assessment of the stock.
Why the Parties chose a different outcome
The Norway-EU-UK agreement is not based solely on annual ICES catch advice. It builds on an ICES Special Request process, following a joint request from the Parties to evaluate long-term management strategies for North Sea autumn-spawning herring.
This ICES work assessed how alternative harvest rules would perform over time in terms of biological risk, the probability of the stock falling below critical limits, yield and year-to-year quota stability. It did not recommend a quota, but provided the scientific basis for selecting a new management framework.
How Annex VI explains the 20% reduction
The agreed management framework includes a TAC constraint mechanism that limits year-to-year changes to a maximum of +25% up or -20% down, as long as the spawning stock biomass (SSB) is estimated to be above Btrigger.
For 2026, SSB is estimated to remain above Btrigger. This activates the constraint and caps the reduction at 20%, even though the standard ICES advice implies a larger cut. If SSB were to fall to or below Btrigger, the constraint would not apply and larger reductions would follow.
What this does - and does not - mean
- It does not reflect improved stock conditions.
- It does not represent a revision of the ICES stock assessment.
- It does not mean the earlier communication of a 30% reduction was incorrect.
Instead, it represents a shift toward strategy-based management, where short-term quota changes are moderated within predefined limits, provided the stock remains above precautionary thresholds. Should stock conditions weaken and SSB approach Btrigger, the system automatically becomes stricter.
Market implications and Global Fish view
From a market perspective, the agreed reduction confirms a tighter raw material outlook for North Sea herring in 2026, even if the final cut is smaller than initially anticipated. The reduction is still significant and will influence availability and program planning.
At the same time, the agreement provides greater short-term predictability for North Sea fisheries, which is valuable for planning across the value chain.
