ICES Quota Advices 2026 - a preliminary view
The 2026 ICES recommendations for pelagic species signal a dramatic mackerel cut alongside a stronger outlook for NVG herring. Below we summarise the advice, the rationale, early industry responses, and the Norwegian quota mechanics under the trilateral agreement.
Implications: A sharp one-year reduction for mackerel will constrain raw material availability and likely keep purchase prices elevated in key markets. NVG herring's increase provides partial relief, while North Sea herring and the small trim on horse mackerel underline mixed dynamics across pelagic species.
Why ICES advises this
Mackerel: Spawning stock biomass now below Blim, with fishing mortality above reference points. MSY advice targets a <= 50% chance of SSB recovering above Blim by 2027.
NVG Herring: Improved stock indicators support a higher catch recommendation.
North Sea Herring: Pressure on SSB necessitates a lower advice to secure recruitment.
Horse Mackerel: Stock above precautionary thresholds and F below FMSY; advice broadly stable. Separate zero-catch advice for the North Sea horse mackerel to support recovery.
Initial industry responses
- NAPA (North Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group): "shocking but not surprising"; calls on coastal states to align with ICES.
- Norwegian fleet organisations: emphasise severity and question methods ("science in the dark").
- Japanese buyers: warn of supply risk and record prices if the cut is implemented.
Norway's framework under the trilateral agreement
Shares: Norway 31.00%, UK 27.83%, Faroe 13.35%. Norway transfers 3.2% of total TAC to the UK. Norway's coastal fleet has a 25,000 t floor. Norwegian vessels can fish up to 60% of Norway's quota in UK waters (subject to annual licensing and area rules).
Norwegian estimated mackerel calculation (2026)
| Part | Tonnage (t) |
|---|---|
| Total TAC (ICES advice) | 174,357 |
| Norway - gross (31.00%) | 54,051 |
| Transfer NO - UK (3.2% of TAC) | 5,579 |
| Norway - net | 48,472 |
| UK - gross (27.83%) | 48,524 |
| UK - net (incl. transfer) | 54,103 |
| Faroe Islands (13.35%) | 23,277 |
| Sum trilateral (net) | 125,852 |
| Other coastal states (remainder) | 48,505 |
| Norwegian coastal fleet floor | 25,000 |
| Norway - balance (SUK / trawl / purse seine) | 23,472 |
| NO - max in UK zone (60% of NO net) | 29,083 |
| NO - other zones (40% of NO net) | 19,389 |
Market outlook: The mackerel cut potentially concentrates demand into a smaller supply window and may intensify competition for raw material. Expect persistent price tension in key Asian markets unless coastal states deviate materially from the scientific advice.